Yopez ( Йопез ;)

MV - Июнь 20, 2025, 03:49 amСкорее лавэ.

поиздержался, Париж очень дорог))

интересно, как они с наследным принцем , в дружбе или соперничают...

Луиджи - Июнь 20, 2025, 03:55 amинтересно, как они с наследным принцем , в дружбе или соперничают...

Интересно что в иране сразу после шаха была их версия "временного прав-ва" и типа керенского. Это была кучка интеллигентов западного толка. Но их быстро смела толпа мракобесов спустившаяся с гор.

Мне как то один шапошшный знакомый абрек обьяснил как это работает в том регионе. Причем без разницы где - в баку в конце 80х, в разных станах в ср азии, турции, ираке иране, не важно. Паттерн везде один - переворот делают очкари с образованием в оксфордах и сорбоннах и выгоняют падишахов а потом пастухи и муллы спускаюца с гор и вырезают всех кто не с ними, вкл очкариков-интелигентов.

Не бережете вы Трампушку. А его похоже Арестович покусал

Что то там про 2-3 недели трындит.

MV - Июнь 20, 2025, 04:30 amИнтересно что в иране сразу после шаха была их версия "временного прав-ва" и типа керенского. Это была кучка интеллигентов западного толка. Но их быстро смела толпа мракобесов спустившаяся с гор.

Мне как то один шапошшный знакомый абрек обьяснил как это работает в том регионе. Причем без разницы где - в баку в конце 80х, в разных станах в ср азии, турции, ираке иране, не важно. Паттерн везде один - переворот делают очкари с образованием в оксфордах и сорбоннах и выгоняют падишахов а потом пастухи и муллы спускаюца с гор и вырезают всех кто не с ними, вкл очкариков-интелигентов.

воспоминания смутные, но, по-моему, Хомейни «взошел на трон» сразу после убытия шаха...

xxdevil - Июнь 20, 2025, 04:36 amНе бережете вы Трампушку. А его похоже Арестович покусал

Что то там про 2-3 недели трындит.

в это время года укусы арестовичей не ядовиты

а кто и што трындит про 2-3 недели, Арестович? (честно говоря, не уверен, что знаю точно, кто это сегодня)

если предположить, что речь о Трампе и его словах, о решении в течение 2недель, то тут всё нормально- предприятие это сомнительного толка, разве только как тренировочное упражнение для летчиков, но дорогостоящее и опасное перспективой долгого вмешательства.
а вот этого *овна нам как раз не надо

А что нам, вообще, надо?
Знаю, знаю. Мир, дружба, жвачка и рукопожатия, с кимом, путей, аятоллами, но не война. Война она убивает. Мир, он оживляет. Не воюй, да не будешь убит. Всё разумно.

Луиджи - Июнь 20, 2025, 04:57 amвоспоминания смутные, но, по-моему, Хомейни «взошел на трон» сразу после убытия шаха...

On 16 January 1979, Pahlavi went into exile as the last Iranian monarch,[20] leaving his duties to Iran's Regency Council and Shapour Bakhtiar, the opposition-based prime minister.

Довольно быстро (месяц?) Бахтиар слил прав-во хоменюке.

MV - Июнь 20, 2025, 06:20 amOn 16 January 1979, Pahlavi went into exile as the last Iranian monarch,[20] leaving his duties to Iran's Regency Council and Shapour Bakhtiar, the opposition-based prime minister.

Довольно быстро (месяц?) Бахтиар слил прав-во хоменюке.

а, ну, это по причине медленного хода поезда (пломбированного вагона) , в котором Рухолла из эмиграции возвращался...
его ж высылали

еще мнение, имеющее место быть:



«Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiation that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks," the president said. So it appears any breathless waiting for news might have to wait at least 14 more days.

Two fundamental questions must be answered before Trump issues any orders. One, is a U.S. attack necessary to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons? And two, if the United States did attack, would it work? That is, would it keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons?

On the first question, think about it this way: We've heard several estimates of how close Iran was to a nuclear weapon two weeks ago. The short version was that Iran was very close, within months, to building a weapon, and thus posed a grave danger to Israel and the U.S.

But what is the estimate on how close Iran is to a nuclear weapon right now, after more than a week of intense Israeli attacks designed to cripple the nuclear program? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said Israeli attacks have set back the Iranian effort "a great deal of time," and of course, Israel is not finished with its current military action.

"What Israel has done to Iran is just astounding," former Trump national security adviser H.R. McMaster said on Fox News Wednesday. "They've taken out the whole nuclear supply chain. There are still these buried sites like Fordow and one other deep buried site as well. They've taken out the missiles, a lot of their missile capability, the missile supply chain. Military leadership -- they took out the head of their armed forces, and then three days later, they took out the guy who took his job from him."

And that is just a partial list of what Israel has done in the last week or so. So if the question of the moment is, "How far is Iran away from a nuclear weapon?" The answer is, a lot farther away than it was a couple of weeks ago. The bottom line is that Israel, without any U.S. bombing, appears to be fixing the Iran nuclear problem for quite a while into the future.

Could the nuclear problem come back someday? Of course. But might conditions change, and it doesn't come back? That is also possible. But if the goal is to make sure Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, then Israel is achieving that goal, for a significant time, without U.S. forces joining the war.

The second fundamental question is whether the 30,000-pound U.S. bunker buster bomb, if dropped by a U.S. B-2 bomber, would work -- that is, would it keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons? The short answer is we don't know. Is Fordow simply too deep in the ground -- beyond the bunker buster's capability -- to be destroyed by an aerial attack? Would a bunker buster attack have to be preceded or followed by conventional bombing? Trump is said to be asking questions such as these.

It is important to know the answers -- if there are answers -- ahead of time, because if the U.S. did attack, and that attack did not work, pressure would build for the U.S. to attack some more, and then some more, to get the job done. Where that would end might not be clear.

But remember here, the goal is to make sure Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. Does that mean the problem has to be solved forever -- that is, to ensure that Iran never, ever, ever has a nuclear weapon? Or does it mean to ensure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon for a significant period of time, during which Israel would take additional actions to make sure it does not recover and revive its nuclear program?

Look at this Netanyahu interview, referenced earlier, from the Times of Israel: "Asked how far Israel has set back the Iranian nuclear program at this stage, [Netanyahu] answers by repeating that the goal is that 'it must be destroyed' and describing it as 'like a cancer. You know, when you have a cancer that threatens to kill you, you cut it out. You also do other treatments, and it could be that it returns one day. But I estimate that we are setting them back a great deal of time ... and we're not stopping.... We are truly carrying out root canal treatment."

That leaves the question of whether Israel needs the U.S. to attack Iran to finish the root canal. The answer could well be no. And if it is no, why would the U.S. get involved in fighting a war, with all the uncertainty and bad things that could happen, when Israel is quite willingly doing the job itself? Israel has, after all, shown amazing resourcefulness in its multi-front war since Oct. 7 -- think the Hezbollah exploding beeper scheme. It no doubt has plans of its own to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities with or without American help.

One last note. Underlying much of the argument is the question of the accuracy of intelligence about Iran's nuclear program. When it comes to that, Americans who lived through the first 10 years of this century are duly cautious. In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq based on faulty intelligence concerning supposed weapons of mass destruction. Disaster followed. No one has described it better than the man who made the decision to invade, former President George W. Bush, in his memoir, Decision Points.»

Луиджи - Июнь 20, 2025, 03:39 amнадеется получить должность по наследству?

Для должности по наследству ему хватало просто быть в чалме и рядом.

Пока у Трампа 2-недельный отпуск in the meanwhile https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/iran-attack-destroys-50m-crown-jewel-of-israeli-science-in-devastating-blow/ar-AA1H3SpH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=690bb8d3429a4b49b8e5eeb6b00f5eca&ei=18
 

Пикси - Июнь 20, 2025, 07:53 amДля должности по наследству ему хватало просто быть в чалме и рядом.

идеологический боец, стало быть
или семейные дрязги , тоже случается

Piker - Июнь 20, 2025, 08:47 amПока у Трампа 2-недельный отпуск in the meanwhile https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/iran-attack-destroys-50m-crown-jewel-of-israeli-science-in-devastating-blow/ar-AA1H3SpH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=690bb8d3429a4b49b8e5eeb6b00f5eca&ei=18
 

да, не вовремя он в отпуск уехал, надо было согласовать с отпускным графиком IDF...